Modelling and optimisation of geothermal binary ORC systems using response surface methodology and artificial neural networks
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.62638/ZasMat1329Abstract
This study focuses on the modeling and optimization of geothermal binary Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) systems to enhance power generation from geothermal systems using water as geofluid. Aspen HYSYS, utilizing the Peng-Robinson property package, was used to simulate the process, generating critical process data for subsequent modeling and optimization. Response Surface Methodology (RSM) and an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) were employed to model the relationships between input factors and output response, utilizing a Box-Behnken Design (BBD) for three key input variables: working fluid flow rate, working fluid outlet pressure, and turbine outlet pressure. Both RSM and ANN demonstrated strong predictive capabilities, with RSM achieving an R2 value of 0.9966 and an RMSE of 12.254, while ANN achieved an R2 value of 0.9886 and an RMSE of 23.722, indicating that RSM marginally outperformed ANN in terms of modelling accuracy. Optimization of the ORC system was conducted using RSM and ANN coupled with a Genetic Algorithm (ANN-GA), aimed at determining the optimal values for input and output parameters. The ANN-GA optimization results were validated using Aspen HYSYS and showed superior performance over RSM. ANN-GA predicted optimal values of working fluid flow rate, working fluid outlet pressure, and turbine outlet pressure as 12 kg/s, 19 bar, and 1.2 bar, respectively, which perfectly matched the Aspen HYSYS validation results. This optimization yielded a power output of 958.48 kW, which closely aligned with the Aspen HYSYS validation output of 952.9 kW, reflecting a minimal percentage error of 0.59%. Conversely, RSM predicted slightly deviated optimal values of 11.8 kg/s, 18.47 bar, and 1.2 bar, with a corresponding power output of 940.78 kW. When validated with HYSYS, the RSM-predicted output was 927.2 kW, resulting in a higher percentage error of 1.46%, thereby underperforming relative to ANN-GA. The study highlights the comparative strengths of RSM and ANN-GA, demonstrating that while RSM excels in accurately modeling the relationship and interactions between input factors and output responses, the ANN-GA framework exhibits a significantly higher capability in navigating complex nonlinear optimization landscapes. This highlights the effectiveness of integrating machine learning models with meta-heuristic algorithms for enhanced optimization performance. The findings contribute to advancing the methodology for optimizing geothermal ORC systems and offer a robust framework for improving power generation efficiency in geothermal energy applications.
Keywords:
geothermal energy, RSM, ANN, genetic algorithm, Hysys simulation, power generation, binary ORC systemsReferences
N.Izuwa, S. Ekwueme, N. Okereke, O. Nwanwe, N. Ohia (2024a) Comparative analysis of geothermal binary ORC systems: performance and environmental considerations for CO2 andwater as geofluids. Zastita Materijala, 65(1), 73-85. https://doi.org/10.62638/ZasMat1009
M.Haghghi, Z. Mohammadi, M. Delpisheh, E. Nadimi, H. Athari (2023) Multi-variable study/optimization of a novel geothermal-driven poly-generation system: application of a soft-computing intelligent procedure and MOGWO. Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 171, 507-531. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psep.2023.01.041
N.Izuwa, N. Okereke, O. Nwanwe, E. Ejiga, S. Ekwueme, A. Chikwe, C. Ohaegbulam (2024b) Modeling of Wellbore Heat Transfer in Geothermal Production Well. In IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 1342(1), 012041. IOP Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1342/1/012041
P.M.B. Abrasaldo, S.J. Zarrouk, A.W. Kempa-Liehr (2024) A systematic review of data analytics applications in above-ground geothermal energy operations. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,189,113998.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2023.113998
N. C. Izuwa, V. E. Udigwe, O. I. Nwanwe, N. U. Okereke (2022) Investigation of the Potentials of Heat Extraction from Abandoned Oil Wells for Electricity Generation. Petroleum & Coal, 64(4). https://doi.org/10.4186/petrolcoal.2022.64.4.863
C. Temizel, U. Odi, C. Cetin, Y. Pamukcu, C. Yegin (2024, April) Challenges and Recent Advances in Modeling and Simulation of Geothermal Systems. In SPE Western Regional Meeting, p. D021S010R006. SPE. https://doi.org/10.2118/218899-MS
Z. Said, P. Sharma, A. K. Tiwari, Z. Huang, V. G. Bui, A. T. Hoang (2022) Application of novel framework based on ensemble boosted regression trees and Gaussian process regression in modelling thermal performance of small-scale Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) using hybrid nanofluid. Journal of Cleaner Production,360,132194. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.132194.
J. Oyekale, B. Oreko (2023) Machine learning for design and optimization of organic Rankine cycle plants: A review of current status and future perspectives. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, 12(4), e474. https://doi.org/10.1002/wene.474.
S. Ramachandran, S. S. Bhogilla, P. K. Vijayan (2024) Techno-economic analysis and optimization of a binary geothermal combined district heat and power plant for Puga Valley, India. Renewable Energy,234,121223. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2024.121223
A. G. Sangesaraki, A. Gharehghani, J. R. Mehrenjani (2023) 4E analysis and machine learning optimization of a geothermal-based system integrated with ejector refrigeration cycle for efficient hydrogen production and liquefaction. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 48(82), 31875–31904. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2023.04.343
J. Xie, J. Wang (2022) Compatibility investigation and techno-economic performance optimization of whole geothermal power generation system. AppliedEnergy,328,120165.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.120165
P. Ding, K. Zhang, Z. Yuan, Z. Wang, D. Li, T. Chen, … R. Shofahaei (2021) Multi-objective optimization and exergoeconomic analysis of geothermal-based electricity and cooling system using zeotropic mixtures as the working fluid. Journal of Cleaner Production,294,126237. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.126237
R. DiPippo (2024) Extraction turbines and feed-heating in geothermal binary plants: A thermodynamic performance assessment. Geothermics,116,102857. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geothermics.2023.102857
M. A. Haghghi, Z. Mohammadi, M. Delpisheh, E. Nadimi, H. Athari (2023) Multi-variable study/optimization of a novel geothermal-driven poly-generation system: application of a soft-computing intelligent procedure and MOGWO. Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 171, 507–531. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psep.2023.01.042
D. Pan, S. G. Farkoush (2023) Comprehensive analysis and multi-objective optimization of power and cooling production system based on a flash-binary geothermal system. Applied Thermal Engineering,229,120398. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.applthermaleng.2023.120398
T. Parikhani, M. Delpisheh, M. A. Haghghi, S. G. Holagh, H. Athari (2021) Performance enhancement and multi-objective optimization of a double-flash binary geothermal power plant. Energy Nexus,2,100012. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nexus.2021.100012
E. R. Khama, E. Z. Loyibo, W. Okologume, S. T. Ekwueme, C. V. Okafor, N. P. Ohia (2024) Investigation of the performance of activated carbon derived from ripe plantain peels for CO₂ capture: Modelling and optimisation using response surface methodology. Zastita Materijala, 65(2), 258–272. https://doi.org/10.62638/ZasMat1149
M. Assareh, P. Yavari, M. Jamil, B. Rafiei, E. Assareh (2024) Thermodynamic analysis of a multiple energy production system based on geothermal energy for commissioning in Canada and optimization by response surface method (RSM). Energy, 302, 131669. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2024.131669
A. Haghighi, M. R. Pakatchian, M. E. H. Assad, V. N. Duy, M. Alhuyi Nazari (2021) A review on geothermal Organic Rankine cycles: modeling and optimization. Journal of Thermal Analysis and Calorimetry, 144, 1799–1814. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10973-020-10359-w
A. M. Al Jubori, R. Al Dadah, S. Mahmoud (2017) Performance enhancement of a small scale organic Rankine cycle radial inflow turbine through multi objective optimization algorithm. Energy, 131, 297–311. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2017.05.027
M. E. Kazemian, S. G. Nassab, E. J. Javaran (2022) Comparative techno economic investigation of CCHP combined by GSHP based on response surface methodology. Thermal Science and Engineering Progress, 34, 101386. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tsep.2022.101386
S. Azizi, H. Shakibi, A. Shokri, A. Chitsaz, M. Yari (2023) Multi aspect analysis and RSM based optimization of a novel dual source electricity and cooling cogeneration system. Applied Energy, 332, 120487. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.120487
Z. Xue, S. Yao, H. Ma, C. Zhang, K. Zhang, Z. Chen (2023) Thermo economic optimization of an enhanced geothermal system (EGS) based on machine learning and differential evolution algorithms. Fuel, 340, 127569. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fuel.2023.127569
E. Assareh, S. Hoseinzadeh, N. Agarwal, M. Delpisheh, A. Dezhdar, M. Feyzi, … M. Lee (2023) A transient simulation for a novel solar geothermal cogeneration system with a selection of heat transfer fluids using thermodynamics analysis and ANN intelligent (AI) modeling. Applied Thermal Engineering, 231, 120698. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.applthermaleng.2023.120698
A. Tugcu, O. Arslan (2017) Optimization of geothermal energy aided absorption refrigeration system—GAARS: A novel ANN based approach. Geothermics, 65, 210–221. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geothermics.2016.10.002
D. Ziviani, N. A. James, F. A. Accorsi, J. E. Braun, E. A. Groll (2018) Experimental and numerical analyses of a 5 kWe oil free open drive scroll expander for small scale organic Rankine cycle (ORC) applications. Applied Energy, 230. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.08.109
C. Yilmaz, I. Koyuncu (2021) Thermoeconomic modeling and artificial neural network optimization of Afyon geothermal power plant. Renewable Energy, 163, 1166–1181. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2020.09.029
G. Çetin, O. Özkaraca, A. Keçebaş (2021) Artificial neural network based optimization of geothermal power plants. In Thermodynamic Analysis and Optimization of Geothermal Power Plants, pp. 263–278. Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-12-821037-6.00010-5
C. Yilmaz, O. Sen (2022) Thermoeconomic analysis and artificial neural network based genetic algorithm optimization of geothermal and solar energy assisted hydrogen and power generation. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 47(37), 16424–16439. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2022.03.159
S. Chanthamaly, A. Promwungkwa, K. Ngamsanroaj (2023) Optimal operation of geothermal power plant by artificial neural network., Int. J.of Machine Learning,13(1),48-55. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202304.0427.v1
J. C. Hsieh, Y. C. Li, Y. C. Lin, T. C. Yeh (2024) Off design performance and economic analysis in coupled binary cycle with geothermal reservoir and turbo expander. Energy, 305, 132274. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2024.132274
J. Zhou, Y. T. Chu, J. Ren, W. Shen, C. He (2023) Integrating machine learning and mathematical programming for efficient optimization of operating conditions in organic Rankine cycle (ORC) based combined systems. Energy, 281, 128218. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2023.128218
N. Chitgar, A. Hemmati, M. Sadrzadeh (2023) A comparative performance analysis, working fluid selection, and machine learning optimization of ORC systems driven by geothermal energy. Energy Conversion and Management, 286, 117072. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2023.117072
H. Shakibi, M. Y. Faal, E. Assareh, N. Agarwal, M. Yari, S. A. Latifi, … M. Lee (2023) Design and multi objective optimization of a multi generation system based on PEM electrolyzer, RO unit, absorption cooling system, and ORC utilizing machine learning approaches; a case study of Australia. Energy, 278, 127796. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2023.127796
W. Ling, Y. Liu, R. Young, T. T. Cladouhos, B. Jafarpour (2024) Efficient data driven models for prediction and optimization of geothermal power plant operations. Geothermics, 119, 102924. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geothermics.2024.102924
A. Farajollahi, M. Baharvand, H. R. Takleh (2024) Modeling and optimization of hybrid geothermal solar energy plant using coupled artificial neural network and genetic algorithm. Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 186, 348–360. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psep.2024.04.032
J. Xie, J. Wang (2022) Compatibility investigation and techno economic performance optimization of whole geothermal power generation system. Applied Energy, 328, 120165. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.120165
A. Farajollahi, M. Rostami, M. Feili, H. Ghaebi (2023) Thermodynamic and economic evaluation and optimization of the applicability of integrating an innovative multi heat recovery with a dual flash binary geothermal power plant. Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy, 25(5), 1673–1698. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10098-022-02442-7
A. A. Mana, S. I. Kaitouni, T. Kousksou, A. Jamil (2023) Enhancing sustainable energy conversion: Comparative study of superheated and recuperative ORC systems for waste heat recovery and geothermal applications, with focus on 4E performance. Energy, 284, 128654. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2023.128654
A. D. P. Putera, A. N. Hidayah, A. Subiantoro (2019) Thermo economic analysis of a geothermal binary power plant in Indonesia—A pre feasibility case study of the Wayang Windu site. Energies, 12(22), 4269. https://doi.org/10.3390/en12224269
M. Ozturk, I. Dincer (2021) Development of a combined flash and binary geothermal system integrated with hydrogen production for blending into natural gas in daily applications. Energy Conversion and Management, 227, 113501. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2020.113501
H. Ghasemi, M. Paci, A. Tizzanini, A. Mitsos (2013) Modeling and optimization of a binary geothermal power plant. Energy, 50, 412–428. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2012.11.029
A. N. Hidayah, A. D. P. Putera, A. Subiantoro (2020, February) Selection of optimum working fluid and cycle configuration of organic Rankine cycle (ORC) as bottoming binary cycle at Wayang Windu geothermal power plant. In Proceedings of the 45th Workshop on Geothermal Reservoir Engineering, Stanford University, California. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2002.08912
G. Buster, P. Siratovich, N. Taverna, M. Rossol, J. Weers, A. Blair, … J. Akerley (2021) A new modeling framework for geothermal operational optimization with machine learning (Gooml). Energies, 14(20), 6852. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14206852
A. M. Moustafa, A. S. Shehata, A. I. Shehata, A. A. Hanafy (2022) Reuse of abandoned oil and gas wells for power generation in Western Desert and Gulf of Suez fields of Egypt. Energy Reports, 8, 1349–1360. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2022.01.191
M. T. Islam, M. N. Nabi, M. A. Arefin, K. Mostakim, F. Rashid, N. M. S. Hassan, … S. M. Muyeen (2022) Trends and prospects of geothermal energy as an alternative source of power: A comprehensive review. Heliyon, 8(12). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e11836
H. D. V. Venomhata, P. O. Oketch, B. B. Gathitu, P. Chisale (2023) Working fluid selection for the geothermal solar hybrid cycle at Olkaria II power plant in Kenya. Heliyon, 9(1). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e12867
Z. Zeng, Y. Chen, C. Li, Y. Li, X. Wu (2021) Parametric analysis and system optimization of a novel steam production system by synthetic cascade utilization of industrial waste heat. Energy Reports, 7, 5909–5921. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2021.09.006
P. H. Niknam, L. Talluri, D. Fiaschi, G. Manfrida (2021) Sensitivity analysis and dynamic modelling of the reinjection process in a binary cycle geothermal power plant of Larderello area. Energy, 214, 118869. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.118869
P. Ziółkowski, R. Hyrzyński, M. Lemański, B. Kraszewski, S. Bykuć, S. Głuch, … J. Badur (2021) Different design aspects of an Organic Rankine Cycle turbine for electricity production using a geothermal binary power plant. Energy Conversion and Management, 246, 114672. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2021.114672
S. N. Karlsdottir, H. Pálsson, A. Manadao Bravo Jr, A. Stefánsson, G. O. Boakye (2023, March) Corrosion Testing of Coatings in Simulated ORC Geothermal Heat Exchanger Environment. In AMPP CORROSION (pp. AMPP 2023). AMPP. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.corsci.2023.111234
S. Davíðsdóttir, B. G. Gunnarsson, K. B. Kristjánsson, B. A. Ledésert, D. I. Ólafsson (2021) Study of corrosion resistance properties of heat exchanger metals in two different geothermal environments. Geosciences, 11(12), 498. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences11120498
C. Penot, D. Martelo, S. Paul (2023) Corrosion and scaling in geothermal heat exchangers. Applied Sciences, 13(20), 11549. https://doi.org/10.3390/app132011549
C. Tong, C. Tong (2019) Advanced Materials Enable Renewable Geothermal Energy Capture and Generation. In Introduction to Materials for Advanced Energy Systems, pp. 321–377. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-12009-5_9
F. Fanicchia, S. N. Karlsdottir (2023) Research and development on coatings and paints for geothermal environments: A review. Advanced Materials Technologies, 8(18), 2202031. https://doi.org/10.1002/admt.202202031
A. B. N. Jayakumari, N. G. Malik, G. Mittal, D. Martelo, N. Kale, S. Paul (2023) A review on geothermal heat exchangers: challenges, coating methods, and coating materials. Coatings, 13(12),1-28, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2023.119246
M. AlGaiar, J. Afolabi (2024, May) Enhancing Geothermal Wells Integrity: Key Considerations and Challenges from Drilling to Production. In SPE Symposium: Well Integrity Management, p. D021S005R001. SPE. https://doi.org/10.2118/219465-ms
O. Jiang, L. Cao, W. Zhu, X. Zheng (2024) Review of Reservoir Damage Mechanisms Induced by Working Fluids and the Design Principles of Reservoir Protection Fluids: From Oil–Gas Reservoirs to Geothermal Reservoirs. Energies, 17(19), 4895. https://doi.org/10.3390/en17194895
W. Kibikas, C. Chang, S. J. Bauer, S. Nakagawa, P. Dobson, T. Kneafsey, A. Samuel (2024) Time dependent thermal degradation of lost circulation materials in geothermal systems. Geothermics, 121, 103038. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geothermics.2024.103038
B. Meng, G. Yan, P. He, Q. Zhou, W. Xu, Y. Qiao (2025) Nanotechnology applications in geothermal energy systems: Advances, challenges and opportunities. Advances in Geo Energy Research, 15(2), 172–180. https://doi.org/10.46690/ager.2024.08.02
N. Olry, A. Cascone, M. Eils, L. Bussaglia, V. Smith (2024) Geothermal Drilling Fluid Meets Performance, Environmental, and Regulatory Challenges in the Alps. In Proceedings of the 2024 AADE Fluids Technical Conference and Exhibition. American Association of Drilling Engineers. https://doi.org/10.2118/219022-ms
S. Paul, C. Leahy (2024, March) Performance of Damaged Thermal Spray Coatings in Phase Change Materials (PCMs) Used in Geothermal Plants. In AMPP CORROSION (pp. AMPP 2024). AMPP. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apsusc.2024.159876
L. Wan, J. Wang, W. Yue, F. Lin, C. Gao, X. Liu, … Z. Huang (2024) Composites with Synergistically Enhanced Thermodynamic and Mechanical Properties for Geothermal Heat Exchangers. Advanced Engineering Materials, 26(22), 2401581. https://doi.org/10.1002/adem.202401581
H. Yunpeng, Z. Mingming, D. Ji, C. Chunrong, L. Junfu, Z. Dongping, … M. Chunchi (2024) Study on the thermo mechanical properties of adaptive thermal control anchoring materials in high geothermal tunnels. Construction and Building Materials, 447, 138156. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2024.138156
Q. Zhang, Y. Q. Feng, K. J. Xu, H. J. Liang, Z. N. Liu, C. Y. Zhao, C. N. Markides (2024) Dynamic behaviour and performance evaluation of a biomass fired organic Rankine cycle combined heat and power (ORC CHP) system under different control strategies. Applied Thermal Engineering, 248, 123236. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.applthermaleng.2024.123236
J. Wu, Y. Liang, Z. Sun, Y. Zhu, J. Ye, J. Lu (2024) Dynamic analysis and control strategy of ORC coupled ejector expansion refrigeration cycle driven by geothermal water. Journal of Cleaner Production, 445, 141309. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.141309
S. Davoodi, M. Al Shargabi, D. A. Wood, S. Slivkin, G. Shishaev, V. S. Rukavishnikov (2024) Geothermal energy recovery from abandoned petroleum wells: A review of the challenges and opportunities. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments, 68, 103870. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seta.2024.103870
S. Bilodeau, M. Carty (2024) Conversion of Waste Heat into Electricity Using Combined TESS ORC Technology. SSRN Paper. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4765899
I. Ekeke, C. Mgbemere, C. Nwanze, F. Aniukwu, C. Njoku (2025) Musa paradisiaca stem sap extract as corrosion inhibitor for aluminum protection in acidic environment. Zas. Materijala, 66(3), 653-664. https://doi.org/10.5937/zasmat2501001e
M. H. E. Ahmadi, A. Mosayebi (2021) Fischer–Tropsch synthesis over Co Ni/Al₂O₃ catalyst: Comparison between comprehensive kinetic modeling, Artificial Neural Network, and a novel hybrid GA Fuzzy models. Journal of the Taiwan Institute of Chemical Engineers, 127, 32–45. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtice.2021.07.028
M. Hojjat, S. G. Etemad, R. Bagheri, J. Thibault (2011) Thermal conductivity of non Newtonian nanofluids: experimental data and modeling using neural network. International Journal of Heat and Mass Transfer, 54(5–6), 1017–1023. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijheatmasstransfer.2010.10.012
E. H. Martinez, M. C. P. Carlos, J. I. C. Solis, M. C. P. Avalos (2020) Thermodynamic simulation and mathematical model for single and double flash cycles of Cerro Prieto geothermal power plants. Geothermics, 83, 101713. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geothermics.2019.101713
S. Ata, A. Kahraman, R. Şahin (2020) Prediction and sensitivity analysis under different performance indices of R1234ze ORC with Taguchi’s multi objective optimization. Case Studies in Thermal Engineering, 22, 100785. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csite.2020.100785
A. Khosravi, S. Syri, X. Zhao, M. E. H. Assad (2019) An artificial intelligence approach for thermodynamic modeling of geothermal based organic Rankine cycle equipped with solar system. Geothermics, 80, 138–154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geothermics.2019.03.004
L. Zhou, Y. Zhang, Z. Hu, Z. Yu, Y. Luo, Y. Lei, … Y. Ma (2019) Analysis of influencing factors of the production performance of an enhanced geothermal system (EGS) with numerical simulation and artificial neural network (ANN). Energy and Buildings, 200, 31–46. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2019.07.037
